KENTUCKY DERBY 2006
Post-race commentary - May 9, 2006
The Derby was almost everything it was expected to be. The biggest surprise was the winning margin. Barbaro got the good trip, holes opened up, and he blew away the other contenders, most of whom encountered some kind of trouble. My selection, Sweetnorthernsaint, made a tough run from post position 11 to the rail, made it to third, then appeared to be eased a bit as Barbaro was accelerating on for the victory. The payoffs were terrific, as over $118 million was wagered on the race. As most of you know, we used Barbaro underneath, as I considered him one of the seven legitimate contenders, but we put our money elsewhere and a great opportunity eluded us in this years Derby. On to the Preakness..............another Great Race.........another Great Opportunity...............and with Barbaro's very strong win, Triple Crown excitement will create huge and distorted betting pools , all over again. It will be fun to get the Preakness right and we'll again give it our best shot! Who knows, perhaps we'll beat last years $10,000 plus Preakness win. See the picks we gave out in 2005 for the Preakness. See the picks we gave for this year's Derby.
Final race Commentary - May 4, 2006
Only two days now before the Run for the Roses. Here are our final pre-Derby thoughts: In a 20 horse field, the likelihood of being cut off , bumped, blocked-in, holes closing too quickly, clipped heels, and other tough breaks increases at least twofold. Amazingly, the best horse usually wins; although as mentioned a few days ago, ANYTHING is possible in this race.
Also, the betting pools are enormous and usually quite distorted. Put this all together, it's time to take a "gamble". Situations like this which set up for such potential are rare and if you get it right, the payoffs can be mind blowers. I predict a great and close race! With the fav's in post position 17 & 18, I figure no less than 7 horses have an excellent chance to win. I'll get this down to 2 or 3 by Friday evening, and of course ultimately, The Pick.
All of my regulars have heard my preaching about betting discipline, i.e.limit your betting to 3 possibilities - "lose a little" .."win a little" .. "win a lot". We never want to lose a lot on a given day, as it cuts too deeply into the big win days. This is the way to be a net winner month in and month out. That being said, there are times when you should risk more than normal, only because the pay off potential is so grand! Don't bet the farm, but I'd advise increasing your days bankroll by 50% to 100% for this year's Derby day.
In line with this thinking, those buying our Derby package will receive the advertised $200 in recommended plays and separately another $100 or so in plays just because of the opportunity. Win or lose , it's a great gamble, and of course we're going to try and match last year's nice $10,667 win.
Finally, protect your value! Do not share our betting recommendations with anyone. Even though the pools for Derby day are enormous, giving a lot of protection for value, sharing WILL cut into your winnings somewhat. Also, we are limiting Derby Package sales to protect the value, so if you haven't bought yet , please do so and don't get shut out. If a regular customer does get cut out, we'll give you early priority for our Preakness package. We're having a big Derby party at my place on Saturday and I know many of you are doing the same........Have Fun and Enjoy the biggest race day of the Year and Good Luck. At The Track..........Ron - founder/handicapper
Early Race Commentary - April 25, 2006
Ah the Derby......another huge field, some well known and highly touted favorites, and some real good horses at big prices who haven't shown their best yet just shaping in for the biggest race of them all! What a race and what potential lurks! The greatest thing about this race is about ANYTHING can happen.
Will we get a wild stampede and furious pace like last year, which set up two bombs to run first and second or will we get a great horse running a classic race like Smarty Jones two years ago, or a parade of prices like three years back? For sure the para-mutual pools will be huge and likely quite distorted allowing for enormous pay outs EVEN if fav's run in the money.
Without a doubt this race is a gambler's dream with even life changing opportunities if you can get the right ones lined up. I'll be handicapping right up to the very night before, taking in every consideration including the weather. For sure, we'll have at least one pick three ticket using All in this race for that ANYTHING possibility. Last year, we picked two long shots who each won the races preceding the Derby which allowed our All leg in the Derby to pay off handsomely $10,667 on our recommended $120 ticket. We'll again be putting out our Derby Special on how to play $200 on Derby Day which will include a number of plays.
Don't hesitate to Contact Us with any questions or thoughts you may have. We will get back to you as soon as possible.
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